A Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association official said Monday the country's coffee output for the 2009-10 crop year to Sept. 30 won't fall as much as it previously expected, bringing its forecast in line with those of most market participants.
The latest estimate is for a 10%-15% drop in output from last year, mainly because of rains in the flowering period and typhoons from September to November, said Doan Trieu Nhan, a senior advisor to the association.
Vietnam, Asia's largest coffee exporter, produced 16 million 60-kilogram bags in 2008-09, which ended Sept. 30, according to the association.
"The rainy season and the typhoons had an impact on the harvest, and made it difficult to dry the cherries," he said, without elaborating on why the association raised its production forecast.
The industry body said in August that the coffee output of the world's second largest producer was expected to fall by 15%-20% in the 2009-10 crop year. However, local market participants have been expecting a smaller drop, with most anticipating a decline of around 10% and some even projecting that the crop will match last year's.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture in May pegged its forecast for Vietnamese coffee output at 18.33 million bags in 2009-10, down 1.33 million bags from 2008-09.
The association has proposed that the government make low-interest rate loans to fund the stockpiling of 200,000 tons of coffee for the purpose of regulating the export market in the future, Nhan said.
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